Policy Simulation Lab

Test policy interventions before implementation. Model scenarios, forecast outcomes, and assess risks.

Best Scenario
Aggressive Innovation

ROI: 87.5%

Avg. ROI
78.1%

Across all scenarios

Avg. Payback
3.0 yrs

Time to ROI

Risk Level
Medium

Across scenarios

Conservative Growth
Minimal changes
Publications5200
Patents2100
Jobs Created22.5K
GDP Contribution1.20%
Investment Required$5000M
Expected Return$8500M
ROI70.0%
Payback Period3.2 years

Risk Factors (1)

medium

Slow Adoption

30% probability

Aggressive Innovation
Maximum growth
Publications7800
Patents3200
Jobs Created32.0K
GDP Contribution1.80%
Investment Required$8000M
Expected Return$15000M
ROI87.5%
Payback Period2.8 years

Risk Factors (2)

high

Rapid Budget Increase

60% probability

high

Capacity Constraints

50% probability

Balanced Approach
Balanced strategy
Publications6500
Patents2650
Jobs Created27.5K
GDP Contribution1.50%
Investment Required$6500M
Expected Return$11500M
ROI76.9%
Payback Period3.0 years

Risk Factors (1)

medium

Moderate Risk

40% probability

Policy Recommendations
  • 1.The Aggressive Innovation scenario offers the best ROI at 87.5%
  • 2.Implement phased budget increases to manage institutional capacity constraints
  • 3.Focus on talent retention programs to maintain researcher engagement during transitions
  • 4.Establish regular monitoring mechanisms to track scenario outcomes vs. projections