Predictive Analytics

Machine learning-based forecasting for R&D outcomes and policy impact modeling

Baseline Scenario
Current policy trajectory continues
85% Confidence

Key Assumptions

  • R&D budget grows at 3% annually
  • No major policy changes
  • Current institutional capacity
Expected Outcome
620 publications/year by 2028
5-Year Forecast
202420252026202720280200400600800
  • Baseline
Policy Interventions & Impact
Estimated impact of different policy interventions on R&D outcomes

Increase R&D Budget

Timeframe: 2-3 years

+15%
Impact
Cost
High
Success Probability
70%

Establish Research Centers

Timeframe: 3-4 years

+22%
Impact
Cost
Very High
Success Probability
50%

Researcher Retention Program

Timeframe: 1-2 years

+8%
Impact
Cost
Medium
Success Probability
85%

University-Industry Partnerships

Timeframe: 2-3 years

+12%
Impact
Cost
Low
Success Probability
90%
Model Performance & Accuracy
R² Score
0.87
RMSE
45.2
Forecast Horizon
5 years
Training Data
12 years

Predictions are generated using ensemble machine learning models trained on 12 years of historical S&T data. Model accuracy decreases with longer forecast horizons. Use baseline scenario for strategic planning.